THE PLAYOFFS ARE HERE (in most leagues)!
I know it is going to be hard to do this time of year, but the best advice I can give is to not overthink things. You will find the total number of leagues you are responsible will go down and that is where tinkering happens. People have too much time on their hands and they think taking analysis to the next level will help them win their playoff match-ups. In reality, their extra “tinkering” will likely lose them their match-ups because they try to get cute.
If you have any feedback, a specific player you want to know more about, or questions please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @TimNFL.
Josh McCown (39.4%) – I have been recommending Case Keenum for multiple weeks and if you weren’t listening on him then I am guessing you weren’t listening on McCown either. Josh McCown has quietly put together a quality 2017 and is almost a top-12 option. If you are streaming quarterbacks, you could do a lot worse than McCown, who has scored 13 or more points in every game, but three.
Jameis Winston (46.2%) – I never like starting players right when they come back from injury, but the second week is generally where they start to get back into their rhythm and have improved production. I see this for Winston, who is facing the Detroit Lions in Week 14, a team who surrendered 20+ fantasy points in two of their last three games. I also expect for this to be a bounce-back game for Mike Evans, who has not played the Lions since his rookie year (four receptions, 45 yards, two touchdowns).
The first thing you should do is to see if Aaron Rodgers was dropped or if no one picked him up last week. He has a chance to come back at some point during your fantasy playoffs and could be a big boost to your lineup. I don’t think the Packers would chance rolling Rodgers out if he couldn’t be effective. Alex Smith should also be a quarterback to see if he was dropped after having four weeks under 20 points. Another streaming option of the week to consider should be Jimmy Garoppolo. He looked sharp in his first game as a 49er and his play should only look better against the Houston Texans. The Texans have failed to supply streamers with top-10 fantasy quarterbacks ONLY twice this season (Kevin Hogan and Joe Flacco).
Mike Davis (2.9%) – It would be nice to think the Seahawks have finally found “their guy.” Davis managed 78% of the snaps in Week 13 and accounted for quality production on the ground and through the air. If you didn’t already go hard after Mike Davis before, then you should dump what FAAB you have left on him now. Davis is my TOP WAIVER ADD OF THE WEEK.
Devontae Booker (9.2%) – A lot of people will be down on Booker after his stinker in Week 13, but to look beyond the box score, there was a report of Booker being ill and that may have led to Anderson getting more work in Week 13. In Week 14 Booker gets an OK matchup against the Jets, but you will want him on your team for his Week 15 matchup against the Colts (giving up the 6th most fantasy points to running backs in 2017).
Peyton Barber (1.5%) – Barber was one of my favorite pick-ups last week and we all had 18+ points. Going into Week 14, Barber faces a Detroit Lions defense that is ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA. The concern will be if Martin is able to come back and if the Bucs will hand the reigns back to him. Barber is a good stash for the time being and would be a strong play if the Bucs give him another shot.
Josh Gordon (66.3%) – The Browns have offensive playmakers and both of these wide receivers are worth a pick-up. Josh Gordon came back to a heavy workload of 11 targets and an 84% snap rate. Josh Hermsmeyer (airyards.com) shared Gordon had 210 Air Yards in Week 13 (4th most of the week) and if his quarterback would have been a little better, would have had a much bigger day.
Dede Westbrook (10.5%) – Bortles has been asked to do a little more in the offense and Westbrook is the beneficiary. Over the last three weeks, Westbrook has seen 25 targets and in Week 14 will face a Seattle defense that doesn’t have their top-3 DBs. I would expect for Bortles to continue to feed Westbrook, and Lee, as long as he is being asked to do more.
Marquise Goodwin (6.9%) – The Jimmy G. time is now for the 49ers and it was obvious Goodwin and Jimmy G. had a connection (connecting on eight of eight targets). In Week 14, Goodwin takes his top-12 Week 13 air yards up against a defense that is bottom-10 in air yards allowed and bottom-three in touchdowns allowed. If you are going to take a gamble in your Week 14 playoff matchups, Goodwin is where I would take the gamble.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (59.9%) – The road has been bumpy and ASJ has not been an ELITE option for us every week. What he has offered is volume of targets. In all but three matchups this season, ASJ has had five or more targets and his biggest blemish is getting touchdowns taken off the board. In Week 14, ASJ faces a defense in the Broncos that is in the bottom-four of points allowed to the TE position. They even allowed double digit fantasy points to Julius Thomas.
Trey Burton (.3%) – I’m not going to get complicated with the analysis here. Trey Burton is an excellent pass-catching tight end and Zach Ertz is likely to miss Week 14.
Stephen Anderson (0.1%) – Anderson may not be a well-known player by many, but what he lacks in name cache he makes up for in physical talent. Anderson is an extremely explosive athlete who excels in the passing game. In Week 13 he saw 12 targets and with a lack of receiving weapons, outside of Nuk Hopkins, Anderson could see double digit targets again this week. Anderson is a risky play this week and I would urge owners to look in another direction before rolling the dice with Anderson in their line-ups.
Good luck during the home stretch of the fantasy football season. As always, if you have any questions please make sure to reach out to me on Twitter (@TimNFL).