The Splitting Theory
We all know what happened in Game 1 of the finals. I already wrote about that a few nights ago. However, that is done and finished, there will be no protests and the Cavs head into Game 2 tonight facing a 1-0 deficit to the Warriors.
I have this theory about the NBA Playoffs that came to fruition in the Boston Eastern Conference Finals series. It is that in some ways, the road team actually has the advantage and here’s why:
The obvious reason why having home court is better is because you get four games on your home floor and only have to play three games on the road if the series were to go the entire seven games.
But here’s the twist.
If you are the home team, like the Warriors are, there is no such thing as a “feel out” game to start the series. The pressure is on you to win the first two games to maintain the home court advantage. The Cavs lost Game 1, could lose tonight and still have a chance to win two home games to tie the game at two games apiece, after feeling out and ultimately losing the first two road games.
The universally accepted goal of the road team is to always split the first two on the road, win both at home and manage to win one of the last three games in the series. Taking momentum into account, I would always choose to win the second of the first two games to have the momentum heading into the home games.
So, tonight’s Game 2.
Now, the Cavs absolutely choked away Game 1 and there is no excuse for that, but people are acting like that was a Game 7 when it was the only first game in the series. If the Cavs could somehow come out tonight and take Game 2, they have all the momentum heading back to Cleveland with a split series and two games at home upcoming.
It’s still a tall task.
Certainly, we’d be a lot more comfortable trying to go ahead 2-0 on the road against the Warriors, but it is so unlikely to win two games in a row at Oracle Arena. Had the Cavs won Game 1, I’d expect the Warriors to play with urgency in tonight’s game, tie the series at one and have the momentum heading to Cleveland.
The Cavs have to win tonight in order for this theory to work. However, last series proved that just because a team is up 2-0 doesn’t mean the series is over. The same with the 2016 finals. The biggest advantage is a Game 7 would be in Golden State and they are a much better team than the Celtics.
LeBron and company must come out firing on all cylinders, somehow play even better than they did in Game 1 and tie this series. If they can do that, with two games back in Cleveland, it’s anybody’s series. But until Golden State wins one in Cleveland, don’t count out the Cavs.
Image: ESPN
