The Case to Trade the #1 Overall Pick
I would like to begin by saying that this is just a theory, an avenue that the Browns should explore. I, personally, believe the safest bet is to take USC QB Sam Darnold at one and draft DE Bradley Chubb at four, but this is a theory I have run over in my head many times and would like to share it. Here goes.
I want you, for all intents and purposes of this article, to think of the Browns picks as two top-five picks and not #1 and #4 respectively.
With the Jets recent trade into the #3 slot and the Giants either taking a QB at #2 or trading down with a team like the Bills, it is likely that the three top picks will be quarterbacks. Thus, when the Browns pick at number four, they will get to choose the BEST position player out there.
The true determining factor is what GM John Dorsey values in trade acquisition, Tyrod Taylor, the former Buffalo Bills quarterback. Taylor is a solid quarterback, but he is not someone I would see as a future Super Bowl winner.
Frankly, I believe that none of these quarterbacks really scream, “I AM A NUMBER ONE OVERALL PICK!” That is the issue. This isn’t the Andrew Luck draft of 2012 or even last year with a position player, DE Myles Garrett, as the lock for number one. There is much debate as to who deserves the honor of getting selected first.
If Dorsey is not 100% certain that the quarterback he is going to pick at #1 is THE GUY, then why burn the pick on a player that he isn’t in love with after watching tape, Combine, Pro Day etc.?
When the Jets traded to #3, the #1 pick gained so much value because it is the first choice of the three QBs going, one, two, three. However, the 4th pick loses value because three quarterbacks are hypothetically gone, when it may have been only two before. That’s why trading the 4th pick now loses its luster.
Let’s regroup.
In order to trade the #1 pick, Dorsey must have confidence in Tyrod Taylor to be the starter for the years to come and he must not have complete faith in a quarterback that would be selected at one.
If these two stipulations are true, I believe Dorsey will keep his door open for offers at that pick. Now, he should not trade the number one overall selection unless he receives a LOAD from the team making the offer. Three firsts, two seconds and a third, maybe even a player attached, too. Teams will give up a lot to get their future quarterback and picking at one is a guarantee that they will get their player.
Now, the Browns can select the best position player at #4, even after this trade, pick another great player in the first round (with the selection they acquired in the trade) and have way more picks to take talented players this year or in the coming years.
There are still so many holes to fill on this team!
Seller beware: In the past, the Browns have traded down and missed on stars like WR Julio Jones, QB Carson Wentz and many others. However, for the first time in a long time, I actually trust the front office to make the right decision.
So, this is something to think about. The number one pick is not commonly traded, but it has been done in the past. If all of these factors line up to create a perfect storm, it would not shock me if Dorsey pulls to trigger. However, as I said in the beginning, I believe he will select USC QB Sam Darnold at one and DE Bradley Chubb at four.
Image: Browns.com
