Follow the author: @MikeCLE_
What’s going on, guys; I do not know how many of you all are degenerates like myself, but I figured I would send out the draft day props that I will be on tonight. These are solely based on VALUE. What that essentially means is that I am picking riskier picks as opposed to picking lines with absolutely no value (return money).
Picking NFL Draft Day props is not comparable to daily MLB picks. For draft night, you want to be on top at the end of the night with the riskier picks, as opposed to MLB where you need to pick essentially all of the winners to have a positive day, depending on your bets.
One bet on NFL Draft Night will put you positive on the night no matter what if you pick the right pick. You can go 5-12 and come out super positive on NFL Draft Night. For example, for this year’s Super Bowl, the Falcons were obviously taking on the Patriots. I had the Falcons spread, money line and the over. As you know, two of those bets lost and one won. BUT before the game, I had money on a prop that Luke Bryan would not wear a hat for the National Anthem and it won. Going into the game, I was already up around 20 units. That is why prop bet value is king in most cases. I lost 2/3 bets during the game and still came out on top A TON because of the prop bet value. I can sit here and pick all of the chalk picks throughout the entire draft prop bet’s and have a really positive record. I do not want to do that because I would rather hit a very risky pick as opposed to a bunch of chalk picks and break even. For the sake of the blog, we will be using 1 unit which will be $100. Let’s get started.
Draft Position of Mitchell Trubisky
Over 12.5 +110
Under 12.5 -140
Going with the safe play here, Under. 100/71.43
Draft Position of Christian McCaffrey
Over 12.5 -125
Under 12.5 -105
I don’t think he will get past the Panthers, Under. 100/95.24
Draft Position of Patrick Mahomes
Over 24.5 +100
Under 24.5 -130
Chalky pick, but I think a team will reach on him, Under. 100/76.92
Over/Under Number of QB’s in the First Round
Over 3.5 +170
Under 3.5 -220
This is a VALUE pick. Do not put your house on it. Risky, but Over. 100/170
Over/Under RB’s in the First Round
Over 3.5 +155
Under 3.5 -200
There’s value in the Over. I think that Mixon has a chance to go in the first round. That means Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon. Over. 100/155
RB’s in the First Round
Over 2.5 -300
Under 2.5 +240
There are going to be three in the first round. There is absolutely no value in this pick it is 300/100, but it is free money in my opinion. I think Dalvin Cook is going in the first for sure. Over. 300/100
TJ Watt Selected in First Round
I think he goes in the first. Good value in the pick. Yes, 100/100
Joe Mixon Drafted Before 47th Pick
Value in the Under. 100/115
Over/Under SEC Players in the First Round
Over 10.5 -165
Under 10.5 +135
There will be more. Over. 100/60.61
Round Selection of Chad Kelly
7 or Undrafted +130
I think he goes seven or undrafted. 100/130
That’s all I have seen value in. If I see any more I will update this.
Lastly, since I blogged my bets as opposed to just doing them behind the scenes. These will all probably lose so fade me.