You’re sitting at the roulette table and you put money down on red. So far the table has hit red five out of six times. You’re using probability and you feel confident. If you apply that same logic to betting on the Browns vs Texans game, you’d be placing your money on Houston.
The Browns are a miserable 1-5 against Houston in the last six meetings. What went wrong and why do we need to ignore probability this time? Aside from Deshaun Watson being sidelined, the Texans ranked dead last in PFF ranking of the defensive line in 2020. They lose JJ Watt and are rated the worst defensive line entering this season. After one game the Browns have the highest-rated offensive line. The Browns can and will control the game at the line of scrimmage. They will dominate the time of possession and control the ball.
Offensively the Cleveland Browns have averaged 26 ppg under Stefanski including the playoffs. The Houston defense gave up 20 first downs and 395 total yards against the Jaguars. Expect the Browns to match or exceed these numbers while finishing the drives. The Texans rushed for 160 yards at 3.9 a carry. Duplicating that performance this Sunday would be very impressive given the Browns front seven and considering the Texans’ weapons, the Browns will load the box. Make Tyrod Taylor beat you by throwing the football.
Cleveland football has not been a model of success for the past 20 seasons and many teams have adapted the new way to play. Throwing the ball 40 or more times a game and thriving off of one or two play drives. The Browns find success in a more traditional way. Unfortunately for the Texans, they will struggle at stopping a team of this build.