Are the Indians Buyers or Sellers?

So with the trade deadline coming up this Thursday, July 31st, the Indians could have a very important task at their hands.

That task?

To decide whether to buy, sell, or simply stand pat.

I’d like to start by saying in no way is the season over. As depressing as the last two series against the Twins and Royals have been, the season is far from over. The Indians stand 4.0 games back of the 2nd Wild Card spot and 6.5 games back of the first place Tigers. Opposed to common belief, neither are insurmountable and the playoffs are still a legitimate possibility. There are currently 57 games left in a 162 game season and the Indians stand at a game under .500 at 52-53. The Indians have a big homestand against the Mariners (3 game series), Rangers (3 game series), Reds (2 game series). But what are the Indians overall possibilities?

Selling is not much of an option regardless. The Indians have few legitimate movable pieces (Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera being the two prime candidates) and even if the Indians were to move those pieces one can legitimately argue that the Indians could very well make a run at the playoffs without both of them. Cabrera has been a disappointment defensively and Masterson (Currently standing at a 5.51 ERA and is 4-6 on the season) too has had an incredibly poor season as a whole. Both arguably could do more help to the Tribe than hurt if they are moved.

Cabrera is by far not the SS of the future for this team, and the likely scenario is that he will be moved and regardless of whether he is moved or not, will likely not be resigned. The Indians top prospect, Francisco Lindor, is currently at AAA Columbus and could arguably have a callup to the MLB soon if Cabrera is indeed traded. Regardless of what the Indians do with Lindor, Cabrera will most likely not be a Cleveland Indian next season, so for now it is best to see what you can get for him and Aviles and Ramirez can fill in at SS until Lindor is truly ready to be called up to be the everyday SS.

Justin Masterson on the other hand is a unique case. He came off a dominant 2013 upon which he was an all star and was the undoubtable ace of the Indians staff. He, like Cabrera, is on the last year of his contract. Masterson’s original price was obviously much larger earlier in the season, but now that he has fell “flat on his face” a case can be made for his price being exceptionally low now. The Indians can opt to resign him, and if he returns to form, it could end up being a bargain. Do I think the Indians will do this? Perhaps not. But it remains an option. The other option is the same as Cabrera’s; to trade him to the highest bidder and to make sure you get something for him while the Indians can. The Indians are reportedly willing to trade Masterson to the highest bidder, so I see the second option being the most likely scenario.

But does that make the Indians sellers if they trade Masterson and Cabrera?

The answer to that is no.

The Indians can trade Masterson and Cabrera and still be buyers. Frankly, it is arguably the best overall option.

 

The real question is will the Indians do anything that deems us a “buyer”?

My realistic response is no and as sad as that may be I do not see the Indians truly doing much at the deadline that would deem us as “buyers”.

But if we were to be, who would be realistic options?

There are three bats I feel the Indians could go after. Those three are Matt Kemp, Marlon Byrd, and Ryan Howard.

Kemp is pricey and arguably the least likely of the bunch. His bat would arguably be a legitimate upgrade in the OF and could cement the Indians in the OF for a very long time. While he is a definitive upgrade, as I said, his contract (Over 100 million owed) is not something I see Dolan being willing to take on, and thus the least likely scenario.

Byrd is another definite upgrade and is arguably something the Indians have needed. He is a big bat. He’s definitely not a defensive upgrade, but his bat could make the Indians offense much more strong. He is a viable option and arguably a very likely candidate. I’ve yet to see a report that the Indians are truly interested, so this is simply an option that I see as viable.

The third of my three options is Ryan Howard. He’s purely a “Big Bat” to the core. He’ll deliver, but not as consistently as he would have earlier in his career. This is another viable option I see fit, and could be a legitimate DH for this team. He’s past his prime in some ways but his bat could still deliver. He would be a legitimate option, regardless of no reported interest by the Indians.

As there are many options available, I feel the Indians will not trade for a starting pitcher. There is no legitimate option I can see the Indians trading for. Especially now that the Indians saw who the Giants had to give up for Jake Peavy, a below average all around pitcher. So if the Indians are buying I honestly only see them going after is a bat.

So what are the Indians? Buyers or Sellers?

I do not think we can  definitively define the Indians as either. I feel the Indians are much more in the middle than any of either.

My honest and realistic prediction:

The Indians are to do both a bit of buying and selling. And Antonetti and Shapiro will likely feel the current team is fine as a whole. I do not believe we will see a legitimately different roster following the deadline. But one thing we should all know. No one truly knows what the Indians will do. They could very well surprise us all. Or perhaps yet again stand pat. Who knows? All I know is it is intriguing to talk about and the clock is ticking. We shall see what happens.

Regardless of what happens at the deadline, I implore you all not to give up hope. This season is far from over, and there is much time to make up ground as whole. After all, my initial prediction at the beginning of the season was Angels-Indians in the WC game in Anaheim. I still stand by that.

As always,

Thank you and Roll Tribe.

-Tyler Meitin